Title Image Credit: Tomer Burg (@burgwx)
Update to previous story
Hurricane Beryl formed Saturday afternoon east of the Caribbean, becoming the first Atlantic hurricane of the 2024 season. On Sunday morning, it explosively and rapidly intensified into a major hurricane, just a day after it was only a tropical storm with 60-mph winds. A major hurricane is considered Category 3 or higher, with winds of at least 111 mph.
As of Sunday’s 11 am National Hurricane Center update, Hurricane Beryl was located about 420 miles east-southeast of Barbados. It was a Category 3 storm with maximum sustained winds of 115 mph and was moving west at 21 mph.
Already a record-setting hurricane
Beryl is already a record-setting hurricane. It’s the first June ‘major’ hurricane east of the Lesser Antilles on record.
Its rapid intensification is a record too. Hurricane Beryl intensified by 65 knots in the last 36 hours. No other storm on record has reached this level of rapid intensification in June before. It’s happened only twice in July with Bertha in 2008 and Dennis in 2005.
Beryl is also the first hurricane in more than fifty years to appear before July 4th in the Atlantic basin. Alma hit the Florida Keys on June 8, 1966,
What is Rapid intensification?
Rapid intensification occurs when a storm increases its maximum sustained winds at least 30 knots in a 24 hour period. That’s roughly 35 mph. Beryl intensified by 65 knots in 36 hours. It took Beryl 42 hours to go from a tropical depression to a major hurricane, on June 30th. This has been done 6 other times in Atlantic hurricane history, but never before September 1.
Beryl is developing over incredibly warm ocean waters in the deep Atlantic that are the highest on record for this time of year, and with minimal wind shear too.
What is next with Hurricane Beryl?
If Beryl strengthens to a Category 4 hurricane as expected by July 1st, it will be the earliest Category 4 storm on record. Currently, the Atlantic record for the earliest Category 4 hurricane is Hurricane Dennis on July 8, 2005.
Beryl is likely to encounter increased wind shear as it moves further into the Caribbean Sea, which could moderate its rapid intensification. However, forecast models suggest that the storm may encounter less shear again as it moves into the western Caribbean. Hurricanes tend to strengthen when there is less wind shear and high ocean heat content. The Gulf of Mexico has plenty of hot water temperatures.
Beyond five days, the track forecast becomes more uncertain. Currently, the European model predicts a stronger storm moving southward into Mexico by the weekend. In contrast, the American GFS model suggests a weaker storm entering the Gulf of Mexico and making landfall in Texas.
The models are expected to align more closely in the coming hours to days as the intensity scenarios in the western Caribbean become clearer. Therefore, residents along the western Gulf Coast in the U.S., Central America, or Mexico should stay alert.
Previous story below (Friday, June 28, 2024)
Invest 95L Upgraded to Tropical Storm Beryl
Tropical Disturbance Invest 95L was upgraded to Tropical Storm Beryl late June 28th. The CAC sees a strong possibility that this unusual storm coming off Africa will become the season’s first hurricane over the next few days as it moves westward toward the Lesser Antilles.
Waves moving off Africa are usually issued in August and September but this is an unusual year and part of the reason the CAC is recommending extreme vigilance this hurricane season.
Less than two weeks ago, an intense tropical system formed just off Sarasota and brought record rains and 40 mph wind gusts to the Sarasota metro area, causing serious flooding. This was yet another clue for us to pay attention.
The area of low pressure being monitored now is located about 1,500 miles east-southeast of the Windward Islands is expected to become either a tropical depression or Tropical Storm Beryl over the next day or two, according to the National Hurricane Center.
The National Hurricane Center (NHC) said the system, designated as Invest 95L, is becoming “better defined” and a tropical depression or tropical storm will likely form Friday or Saturday.
“This system is expected to move westward at 15 to 20 mph and approach the Lesser Antilles by the end of the weekend,” the NHC said in an advisory Friday morning. “Interests there should monitor the progress of this system.”
The NHC is also monitoring two other tropical waves in the Atlantic, including Invest 94L in the Caribbean. Both waves have low chances for development, according to the NHC.
Once the center forms, we will have some ideas on future paths and if our region will experience impacts from what looks like the first hurricane of the 2024 hurricane season. More to come!
Spaghetti models
For now, forecast models have the path moving into the Western Caribbean after the 4th of July. It’s still too early to know if it holds together and moves into the Gulf of Mexico.
Another area to watch
The newest tropical wave being monitored is way out into the eastern Atlantic, called Disturbance #3. Some slow development is possible over the next seven days and it has a 30% chance of further development over the next 7 days, but 0% chance within the next 48 hours.
Disturbance #1 near Mexico also has a 30% chance of further development.
GOES-East satellite image – June 28, 10;30 EDT. 95L/Beryl is located off the coast of French Guiana
2024 Storm Names
