Tropical Storm Debby? Stay tuned…
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No doubt you have been following the wave that came off Africa several days ago. Hindered by thick African Dust blowing out of Africa over the main development region for Atlantic hurricanes, this system has been on a slow roll across the Atlantic. Now, as the wave heads toward Cuba, then Florida and the Gulf, the dust has all but dispersed.
Conditions are becoming quite favorable for tropical storm development as the wave moves along Cuba’s north coast area and then into the Florida Straits by Saturday. The interaction with Cuba will likely limit rapid development but should the center form over water and then travel into the Florida Straits and southeast Gulf of Mexico, there is a good chance Tropical Storm Debby will form by sometime Saturday.
Steering currents suggest the storm could move up the west coast of Florida just offshore but late Saturday and Sunday. Because there will be little wind shear and very warm sea surface temperatures, there is potential for this storm to intensify as it moves northward especially from Venice northward.
Image Credit: NOAA
Before the wave forms a definite center, it is almost impossible to home in on an accurate path. The red arrows show the general path I expect. If a center develops by the evening of Friday, August 2nd, better details will also be possible.
One other note. The red oval is where I expect the center of the system will be late Sunday. There are indications the atmospheric steering currents will weaken and the system could stall. If it does so over water instead of over land, that would give it time to gain strength and potentially meander near or on the coast. That would not be a great scenario!
Models have under-predicted rapid intensification in two similar weak storms recently. Hurricane Otis in the eastern Pacific last fall and Hurricane Beryl in June 2024. With ideal conditions of low wind shear and excessive sea temperatures, we need to be listening here.
Image Credit: NOAA
To underscore this caution, the image above shows 32°C ocean temperatures along the Southwest Florida coastline. This is exactly what the sea temperatures were when weak tropical storm Otis became a mega hurricane in one day’s time—creating a catastrophe in Acapulco, Mexico last fall.
In this case, Cuba could save the day by limiting this storm’s chances to grow until it makes the turn into the Gulf.
Look for even more rain along the west coast of Florida, with 3 to 5 inches as the storm passes by. Only a few months ago a severe drought was in full swing. That ended with the unnamed storm that hit Sarasota on June 11.
Finally, I want to remind you that flooding is becoming a common theme in storms that are near the coast, even those that aren’t hurricanes. Idalia was 150 miles away when it created a 3 to 5 ft storm surge from Venice to Tampa with winds of only gale force in our area. Then another storm, not even classed as a Tropical Storm, caused significant flooding on the barrier islands in December. Coastal saltwater flooding and inland freshwater flooding are real threats. For reference, Sunday’s high tide is at 12:30 pm. High tides are already quite high this time of the year even without a storm nearby.
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