Debby Graduates to Tropical Storm Status
In my Tropical Update early Friday, I indicated several projections:
- The storm would track along Cuba and that would keep it from developing into a Tropical Storm until Saturday
- The system would likely become Tropical Storm Debby and tack northwestward off the west coast of Florida though Sunday
- Debby could intensify more than models forecast because of low wind shear and 90°F sea surface temperatures
- The storm could stall once it went by our coastal area in the Big Bend of Florida Area
- High Tides Sunday on the Suncoast could be high enough to create storm surge saltwater flooding
- Rainfall would be 3-5 inches
All these early forecasts are coming to pass.
Tropical Storm Warnings, Flood and Storm Surge Watches are in effect for the Suncoast.
Debby is currently a large storm and is beginning to intensify and I expect it may rapidly intensify once it moves north of the Suncoast Sunday and Sunday night. Squalls began on the Suncoast Saturday afternoon and flooding rains will be possible though all of Sunday and Sunday night. Three to 5 inches of rain still seems like a good bet locally on average but there could be double that amount in some spots and 12-18 inches of rain in northern Florida as the storm slows down and comes inland. YIKES! Be prepared for freshwater flooding from the excessive rains.
Credit: NOAA/TropicalTidBits.com
As Debby intensifies as it moves by the Suncoast midday Sunday, strong south to southeast winds will bring high surf and tides from Bonita beach northward. Two to 4 feet of storm surge is expected here with a potential catastrophic storm surge of 6 to 10 feet possible in the Big Bend area when Debby makes landfall Monday. By then Hurricane Debby may be strengthening fast just as it slows down and creeps northeastward across northern Florida, just as I shared with you in my early Friday Tropical Update.
Because the surge will occur close to High Tide at 12:47 Sunday afternoon, saltwater flooding will probably occur along the barrier islands in the Sarasota/Tampa metro area. Due to long-lasting onshore gale force winds, storm surges and/or coastal flooding may continue into Monday.
Let’s look at the path of Debby as it moves up the west coast of Florida and into northern Florida as the 4th named storm of this notable 2024 Hurricane Season. Should Debby reach hurricane force as we expect, it will be the 2nd hurricane of the season. We shall not forget the unnamed Sarasota storm of June 11th or Category 5 Hurricane Beryl, the earliest Category 5 since official records began.
Credit: National Weather Service/NOAA
While Storm Surge and heavy rains are the main topics for Debby along the Suncoast, a strengthening storm will mean gale force winds will begin early Sunday morning and likely continue into Monday morning. On the barrier islands from Lido Key northward 50 – 60 mph wind gusts will become onshore as the center moves to the north. On the mainland winds should top out at about 50 mph.
Thunderstorms could also spawn a few tornadoes over western and northern Florida. We are seeing more tornado activity with hurricanes these days.
It’s going to be a long hurricane season so let’s work together to make sure we are prepared!