Hurricane season officially begins on June 1, but the peak part of the season in the Atlantic is just getting started. Statistically, nearly 80% of all tropical cyclones develop from Mid-August through the end of September.
During this period, conditions are more ideal for the development of strong and fast-moving tropical storms, hurricanes, and depressions.
Two main factors drive this activity: low vertical wind shear and warm ocean water temperatures. Warm waters lower atmospheric pressure and increase instability, enhancing the chances for thunderstorms to organize around rotating systems.
Earlier in the season, westerly winds often create high vertical wind shear, which disrupts storm formation. These winds tilt thunderstorms, making it difficult for systems to become more serious.
However, as the season progresses, the westerlies weaken, allowing storms to organize and intensify more easily, leading to the heightened activity observed during this time.
Sea surface temperatures across the Atlantic have been near-record to record warm since the start of hurricane season. This exceptional warmth, especially across the main development region (the area in the tropical Atlantic where most tropical cyclones form) is another reason we still expect to have a very active hurricane season.
How does the heat compare to the start of the 2020 season, the most active on record?
The left map above shows sea surface temperatures across the North Atlantic on June 29, 2024. Areas in white and orange indicate temperatures above 80°F, crucial for hurricane development, with some areas nearing 90°F. Much of the Atlantic’s main development region, the Caribbean, and the Gulf of Mexico were record warm in 2024.
The right map shows June 27, 2020, temperatures, which were warm but not as much as in 2024, especially in the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean. The 2020 season was highly active, with 30 named storms, influenced by La Niña, which is likely to develop again this year, raising concerns about an active 2024 hurricane season.
Another favorable factor for tropical development is the expected emergence of La Niña in the coming months.
This combination has forecasters concerned about a very active peak hurricane season.
The hurricane forecast
The Climate Adaptation Center (CAC) gave the nation’s first hurricane forecast on April 4, 2024 concerned about a warming atmosphere and record-warm sea surface temperatures. The CAC forecast calls for 24 named storms, 12 hurricanes and 6 major hurricanes, with most of that activity coming during the peak part of the hurricane season.
That means that things are about to get very busy in the tropics and potentially in Florida too. A normal season produces just 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes.
The season so far
So far, five tropical cyclones have formed, and all of them became named storms. Three of the storms became a hurricane, of which one strengthened into a major hurricane. All four storms made landfall.
Tropical Storm Alberto was the first named storm of the year, forming on June 19, making it the latest first named storm to develop since 2014.
Activity increased at the end of June with the development of two named storms. Hurricane Beryl became a rare June major hurricane, marking the earliest Category 5 Atlantic hurricane on record and only the second recorded in July.
Tropical Storm Chris formed on the last day of June and quickly made landfall in Veracruz. After Beryl dissipated, the basin quieted for most of July due to the Saharan air layer, with no new cyclones forming.
In early August, Hurricane Debby formed in the Gulf of Mexico, eventually making landfall in Florida as a hurricane.
In the Laurel Meadows neighborhood in Sarasota, as floodwaters still remained high days after Tropical Storm Debby passed.
A few days later once Debby dissipated, Tropical Storm Ernesto formed on August 12 in the Western Main Development Region. Ernesto became a hurricane today, August 14 causing damage to the Lesser Antilles. Hurricane Eernesto is expected to turn north and avoid the U.S. East Coast.
To date, the season has resulted in at least 85 fatalities and caused approximately $8.915 billion (2024 USD) in damages, with Beryl and Debby being the primary contributors.
CAC commitment
By recognizing these threats and taking decisive action, we can work together towards our region for future generations while protecting our Florida way of life. The CAC is committed to this mission and helping our community with adaptation education and strategies and working with our leaders to adapt to our warming climate.
You can support us in helping us continue to this work by making a donation or becoming a member today.
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