It may seem like record setting temperatures are becoming a common occurrence these days, but these sea surface temperatures are alarming. According to Brian McNoldy, a climatologist at the University of Miami, the Gulf is currently the hottest it has ever been in the modern record. Recent measurements show the surface temperature nearing 90 degrees Fahrenheit, making a dip in the water feel more like stepping into a bath.
Oceans have absorbed 90% of the heat from human-caused carbon dioxide emissions since the industrial era, but scientists are increasingly worried that this critical buffer may be reaching its limits. Researchers are now investigating the causes behind the rapid rise in sea temperatures, why this heat has persisted, and whether ocean temperatures might cool again.
Central to these concerns is the fear that the oceans, which have played a vital role in mitigating the worst effects of climate change, may no longer be able to absorb heat and carbon dioxide at the same rate. “All that heat that’s going into the ocean isn’t going into the land surface, atmosphere, or ice caps,” explains Michael Meredith, an oceanographer and science leader at the British Antarctic Survey. “The ocean has been doing us a huge climate favor for decades.” However, Meredith warns that there’s no guarantee this will continue at the same pace. “If this slows in the future, the consequences could be far more severe than what we witnessed in 2023, the hottest year on record.”
A chart of ocean heat content in the Gulf of Mexico. Brian McNoldy/University of Miami.
A warmer atmosphere and ocean lead to extreme rain events through a series of interconnected processes. We’ve seen this twice in 2024 already in the Sarasota area. On June 11, 2024, an unnamed tropical storm produced incredible flooding with 10 inches of rain in a short time.
On August 4, 2024, Tropical Storm Debbie, more than 100 miles off the coast brought 10-20 inches of rainfall across the Sarasota area creating history flooding once again.
An overhead view Wednesday afternoon, Aug. 7, 2024, of Sarasota County’s Laurel Meadows subdivision that has been flooded for days. Thomas Bender/ Sarasota Herald-Tribune.
Warmer ocean temperatures cause increased evaporation, transferring more moisture into the atmosphere. This added moisture, coupled with the atmosphere’s greater capacity to hold water vapor as temperatures rise, sets the stage for heavier rainfall when conditions are right. The combination of warm ocean waters and a moisture-rich atmosphere also fuels stronger storms, which can produce more intense and prolonged rainfall.
Additionally, climate change can alter wind patterns, causing storms to move more slowly, allowing them to linger over areas and dump large amounts of rain, increasing the risk of flooding. Warm oceans contribute to feedback loops, where intense storms draw even more moisture into the atmosphere, creating a cycle that leads to increasingly heavy rainfall. Together, these factors explain why warmer oceans and atmosphere are linked to more frequent and intense rain events, often resulting in severe flooding.
Surface temperatures. NOAA
Hurricanes thrive on warm water, and the Gulf’s current heat levels can fuel stronger storms that intensify more quickly, giving coastal areas less time to prepare. The deeper layers of the ocean are also unusually warm, which can prevent hurricanes from weakening as they churn up the ocean, leading to even more powerful storms.
Higher water temperatures also cause coral bleaching, where corals expel the symbiotic algae that give them color and energy. Prolonged bleaching can lead to widespread coral death, threatening marine ecosystems and the biodiversity they support. The loss of coral reefs compounds the danger. These natural structures help protect coastlines by dampening waves during storms. However, prolonged exposure to warm water causes coral bleaching and can eventually kill the reefs, leaving coastal communities more vulnerable to hurricane damage.
Hurricane season
With peak hurricane season just beginning, all eyes will continue to monitor our sea surface temperatures very closely.
This year, the Atlantic hurricane season has already seen five named storms, including Hurricane Beryl, which rapidly intensified to become the earliest Category 5 storm on record. Overall, three of the five named storms became hurricanes. All five named storms made landfall.
The CAC predicts a total of 12 hurricanes (6 of them major hurricanes) this season, meaning the tropics are likely to get very active soon. In fact, 80% of all tropical cyclones develop during the peak season from around mid-August through mid-October.
The extremely warm water in the Gulf of Mexico could be one significant ingredient driving the intensity and frequency of these remaining storms, potentially leading to more severe weather events in the coming months.
CAC commitment
By recognizing these threats and taking decisive action, we can work together towards our region for future generations while protecting our Florida way of life. The CAC is committed to this mission and helping our community with adaptation education and strategies and working with our leaders to adapt to our warming climate.
You can support us in helping us continue to this work by making a donation or becoming a member today.
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