Tropical Weather Update – Monday Evening, September 23, 2024
Tropical Storm Helene is gradually forming between the east coast of Nicaragua and western Cuba over the southwest Caribbean Sea. This is a bad location for Florida and as my last tropical update September 10th indicated, late September and October are climatologically the worst time for the west coast of Florida.
I expect Helene to rapidly intensify into a major hurricane before it hits land on Florida’s west coast, probably on Thursday, north of Tampa. Warnings will be needed on much of the west coast for tropical storm or hurricane winds, associated storm surges and flooding rains.
This will be another large storm in areal extent, and it could well be in the Category 3 or 4 range when it strikes.
Helene is forming at a time when a La Nina is also forming with resulting low wind shear, sea surface temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico are at record highs and moist mid-level conditions are in place.
The record heat content in the Gulf of Mexico is rocket fuel for hurricanes.
For the Suncoast area, I do expect a long period, 24 hours or longer, of gale force winds, 5 inches or more of rain and storm surges after the eye passes some distance offshore Wednesday. After the eye passes, onshore winds will create storm surges on all the Keys from Sarasota and Manatee Counties northward.
High tides are about the highest of the year during early fall. High tides in Sarasota are on Thursday morning at 7:01 am and then again on Friday morning at 8:42 am.
With more than 3 days to go before important impacts begin, there is still some uncertainty where the eye will be when it crosses the coast. Just a small deviation in landfall could make a big difference on local impacts.
Very important! The cone is only the likely path of the eye. Impacts from this storm will be well outside of the cone and can produce very serious damage and threats to life. This is why you must stay alert and up to date
While this hurricane season has produced less named storms than expected, everyone has hit land, and two unnamed storms also hit land and each created record rainfall.
While the season is a bit more than half over, the second half looks like a thriller. The 2024 season has had mostly Gulf storms this year with our unnamed storm in Sarasota on June 11 and storms Alberto, Beryl, Chris, Debbie and Francine all going inland on the Gulf Coast.
Helene, likely will become the 5th Hurricane and second Major Hurricane of the season. 2024 will be the 4th time four hurricanes have struck the USA in one season since 2000. The maximum number of hurricanes to hit the USA in one year is six.
The CAC has been forecasting a big year for local impacts. We have already had a lot!
We must be very careful to prepare for impacts now and then adjust as the storm takes shape in the next few days. Human health is being impacted by these repeated storms and we will be talking about that in the 4th Florida Climate Conference. Please join us. You can learn more and buy tickets here.