Tropical Weather Update – Wednesday Morning, September 25, 2024
STORM SURGE WARNING!
Flood Watch
TROPICAL STORM WARNING
Hurricane Watch
The storm surge with Helene has the potential to be quite large with 4 ft to as high as 8 ft surges common from Englewood north though Tampa Bay and then up to 15 ft in and around where Helene crosses the shoreline.
Such a large and geographically big area of surge has the potential of severe destructive damage and potential for loss of life. Please listen carefully to evacuation messages in your specific community and leave if asked! Scores of Floridians died in the Hurricane Ian Storm Surge just two years ago. Be Smart!
Winds will be increasing tonight and reach gale force before midnight. A long period of gale force winds extending more than 24 hours is likely with peak winds Thursday afternoon with gusts from Sarasota north to hurricane force. At first the winds will blow from the land to the Gulf, but after the eye passes Thursday late afternoon, expect strong onshore winds with high storm surge potential with saltwater flooding along the coastlines.
Wet ground from previous record rainfall will mean trees may fall more easily as wind gusts to hurricane force occur.
Tropical Storm Helene is strengthening and may be a hurricane by the time you read this today! Located in the western part of the Yucatan Straits between Cuba and Cozumel, this is a very large storm like Hurricane Debby, but much more powerful!
This is a bad location for Florida as my last tropical update on September 23rd indicated.
I expect Helene to rapidly intensify today and tonight into a major hurricane before it hits land on Florida’s west coast, Thursday, in the Florida Big Bend area. Warnings are out for most of the west coast for tropical storm or hurricane winds, associated storm surges and flooding rains.
Here is the latest cone. Please remember, the cone shows the range of possibilities for where the center or eye of Helene will pass. Life threatening impacts can and are forecast to occur well outside of the cone especially on the east and northeast side of this storm.
Helene will likely be in the Category 3 and possibly a Category 4 range when it strikes.
Low wind shear has allowed the storm to organize, despite its large size, in such a way that it has an impressive eye stacked perfectly in vertical extent to be an efficient angular momentum machine.
Combined with record deep Gulf of Mexico water heat content, this is a perfect situation for rapid intensification, which is or will be underway soon. Here are the recent satellite and radar images.
Heavy rains are could set off another round of freshwater flooding inland as the ground is still quite wet from our June 11 unnamed tropical storm that produced the heaviest hourly rain in an estimated 1000 years in Sarasota followed by a 200-year rain event over a much larger area during Hurricane Debby. A record 50 inches of rain fell in Sarasota from June through August!
While I expect around 5 inches of rain on average, the spiral bands from Helene could intensify localized storms, potentially doubling rainfall in certain areas. We need to be ready for this potential.
We need to be ready for the potential for a few tornadoes too. Tornadoes are becoming more common in tropical storms and hurricanes in our climate-warmed world.
Helene is now larger than 90% of all recorded storms that have formed south of 20°N.
This is why this storm will have serious impacts well away from its eye. Since the storm will be moving NNE from its present point at an increasing forward speed, the NE quadrant of the storm will likely be the most intense.
Because the Gulf Coast has been such a big target for Hurricanes and Major Hurricanes in the past 5 or 6 years, the economic and medical toll on people is growing.
That is why the Climate Adaptation Center CAC had the 3rd Florida Climate Conference: The Triple Threat from Water in November of last year. The 4th conference is on November 14-15, 2024, at USF SM and focuses on Climate and Human Health.
Join CAC senior scientists, distinguished doctors and top community leaders in an interactive discussion on how we can prepare in advance for the health impacts of our heating climate.
Tickets are available here.