Storm Surge Warnings, Hurricane Warnings & Flash Flood and Tornado Risks!
Winds at Sarasota-Bradenton Airport have already reached 50 mph as Hurricane Milton approaches Sarasota and the Suncoast.
In our Friday Tropical Update, the CAC alerted the Suncoast that Milton would form, become a major hurricane, and possibly impact the area, including Sarasota, today.
My worst fears are now being realized as Milton closes in as a major hurricane. It is expected to make landfall near Sarasota tonight between 10 p.m. and 2 a.m.
High tide in Sarasota is at 4:32 a.m., and the eye is projected to pass within a few hours of that time. Strong to historic storm surge is expected near and south of the eye.
A margin of error of about 20 miles is normal at this stage, so please stay alert as Milton approaches. Many storms have wobbled before landfall, and this one may as well.
Remember, severe impacts are expected throughout the metro area, even if the eye shifts slightly before landfall.
Storm Surge
The Suncoast could experience storm surges as high as 10 to 15 feet if the storm passes near high tide. Wave action, driven by hurricane-force winds, will occur on top of that.
A recent satellite image shows that Milton is increasing in size, a trend expected to continue as the storm approaches Florida’s west coast.
Track
Milton’s approach is best illustrated by the next two images. The first image shows the warning areas, previous track, and the current extent of both hurricane and tropical storm winds.
In the image below, you’ll see the current path projection as Milton approaches Sarasota. This track can still change by about 20 miles in either direction. While the overall impacts will largely remain unchanged, significant changes in impacts near the eye as it crosses the coastline are expected.
Winds & Wind Gusts
Winds are already at gale force and are expected to increase along the Suncoast tonight. Many areas will see winds peak at or above 100 mph tonight and Thursday morning.
Significant wind damage is expected, particularly close to the eye, as well as from spin-up tornadoes.
This recent radar image shows the spiral band moving onto the coastline, and there are already seven tornado warnings in effect south of the Suncoast.
Milton’s eye is located in the bottom left of the image.
Please be safe when warnings are issued in your area by moving to an interior bathroom and getting into a tub, with blankets and pillows covering you. This is the safest location unless you have access to a basement, which is rare in our area.
The storm will traverse the entire state from west to east as a hurricane. This means damage will be widespread even inland.
Heavy Rains and Flooding
6 to 12 inches of rain are expected to fall on very saturated ground from over 50 inches of rain that have already fallen this summer. The risk of flash flooding and flooding is a concern right now!
As this historic event unfolds in our backyard, please use common sense and stay put. Don’t venture out tonight, especially if the eye passes over you. The winds will die down after the eye wall passes, but there won’t be much time until ferocious winds strike from the opposite direction.
Please remain indoors. Our CAC’s background in climate-induced events spans over 100 years. Our community has been informed about every detail. Now, it is up to you.
We wish you well and hope you and your loved ones come safely through this historic event.
Thank you for being a part of this, our first of six planned regional CAC events.
Stay safe!
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