Title Image: Potential Tropical Cyclone 18, Nov. 3, 2024 Credit: NASA
Hurricane Rafael is Forming
November 3, 2024
After 3 hurricanes including a direct hit by Category 3 Milton, I wanted to touch on one of the topics for the 2024 CAC Florida Climate Conference: Climate and Human Health on November 14 & 15 at Selby Auditorium on the campus of USF Sarasota-Manatee.
Climate-caused migration is a very important topic for us in the wake of Debby, Helene and Milton. Part of the Mental Health portion of the conference is for good reason. Major impacts like hurricanes are playing a big role in our mental health. It’s tricky because with thousands temporarily displaced by the storms, a part of the migration story, others will be permanently displaced and must relocate.
Some residents will not be able to rebuild ‘as was’ because they will not be allowed to by statute. Some may not be able to afford to rebuild to higher standards required. Others will not want to face more storms and flooding and will decide to move from threat areas to safer areas within our community or to other remote locations. We have climate-caused migration right here in our community, right now.
The key point is that these decisions will be made while we are stressed out from what has happened. Many just want to get back to the way they were before the Summer of 2024 changed our area and our perception of the risk—risk that the CAC has been warning about for almost 5 years.
Consider coming to our conference to learn from seasoned experts about information that can help inform the decisions you are making now. We don’t have to make these stressful decisions in a vacuum. This is the time to inform your own decision with the best expert information available.
We still have “in person tickets” and virtual tickets for those who cannot attend in person. Please join us and help rebuild a more resilient future. Storms are going to be more frequent and more devastating as the climate continues to warm, making them stronger. Sea levels continue to rise making storm surge more likely too.
We have good choices….come and learn what they are then make your own decision. Let’s make the changes we need to make and enjoy this beautiful place by lowering the risks.
Unfortunately, more storms will be forming in this hurricane season. Storms Rafael and Sara will be forming in the Caribbean in the next few days. The Suncoast will likely have some impact from Tropical Storm or Hurricane Rafael November 6 or 7.
The NOAA/NWS forecast path for Tropical Storm 18/Hurricane Rafael. The storm is projected to reach Tropical Storm status as it passes Jamaica, and Hurricane status by the time it crosses Cuba
Rafael will be forming in the next 24 hours or so in the SW Caribbean off the coast of Central America and then head north over western Cuba and into the eastern Gulf of Mexico. I expect the storm to be offshore and then maybe turn northwest into the Gulf of Mexico just as it reaches the latitude of Sarasota. Rain bands and tides could impact the Suncoast as Rafael passes off the coast as a strong Tropical Storm or Category 1 hurricane.
Because a center has yet to form, we will have to watch closely because the closer the storm gets, the more the risk of coastal flooding increases. Keep tuned to our Tropical Updates as this latest storm takes shape.