As hurricane season approaches, the Climate Adaptation Center (CAC) has released its much-anticipated 2025 Hurricane Season Forecast. Building on years of accurate forecasting, the CAC’s predictions and expert advice can make the difference between vulnerability and preparedness. This year’s outlook provides valuable insights into storm trends, key contributing factors, and crucial steps that individuals and communities can take to mitigate risks.
We are proud that over the past two hurricane seasons, the early CAC Hurricane Season Forecast has been spot on! Over the past two seasons combined, the CAC has missed the number of hurricanes and major hurricanes by just one in each category. No other forecast has been better!
Here is our recipe of ingredients list or the factors that will guide this year’s forecast.
Forecast Fuel: The Ingredients of Hurricane Formation
Hurricanes thrive under specific conditions, and the following factors will significantly shape the 2025 season:
1. Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs): Warmer-than-average SSTs provide more energy for storm formation and intensification. Current data indicates that SST anomalies—particularly in the Gulf of America and Caribbean Sea—are expected to be very warm, enhancing the likelihood of active rapid intensification (RI). When storms rapidly intensify near a coastline, they can strike with devastating impacts that leave little time to fully prepare.
While sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are slightly cooler than they were at this time last year, they remain quite elevated. The Loop Current is clearly visible in the Gulf of America and provides extra warm water to developing hurricanes.
This powerful ocean current flows northward between the Yucatán Peninsula and Cuba, looping into the Gulf before turning south and joining the Gulf Stream. When storms pass over the Loop Current, they can rapidly intensify due to the deep, warm water it provides, fuel that extends far below the surface.
The 26°C water temperature, the magic number for hurricane formation, is not only present at the sea surface but already extends quite deep. In fact, the red areas on the graphic show warm water reaching depths of 300 feet. Such deep, warm water provides an abundant heat source for developing systems and supports rapid intensification (RI). As spring turns into summer, we expect this area of deep warm water to expand.
2. Atlantic Multi-Decadal Oscillation (AMO): The AMO refers to long-term variability in sea surface temperatures over decades. It alternates between cool and warm phases. For 2025, the AMO remains in a warm phase, which historically correlates with higher hurricane activity. This pattern is likely to continue fueling tropical cyclone development this year.
In fact, looking at the dashed line in the image below, one can see that actual warming is outpacing what most models and analogue years predict. In other words, many models are under-forecasting the strength of the current AMO. The red horizontal line indicates the boundary between warm and cool phases.
The takeaway: The Atlantic remains in a very warm phase, which supports an active hurricane season.
3. Bermuda-Azores High:
A weaker Bermuda High typically steers storms northward earlier in their path, which may shift storm trajectories and reduce the likelihood of direct impacts along the southern U.S. coast. This system is important to monitor closely in 2025, as it carries the most uncertainty in the CAC forecast.
4. El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO):
The ENSO condition is forecast to remain neutral in 2025, which typically results in lower wind shear and creates more favorable conditions for hurricane formation.
5. Wind Shear and Mid-Level Moisture:
Below-average wind shear is predicted for 2025, creating a favorable environment for storm development. Average mid-level moisture levels, combined with less Saharan dust than in 2024, will also contribute to increased storm formation.
Wind shear refers to winds increasing with height from the same or different directions. This can tilt a developing storm and disrupt its organization by blowing the center axis off balance. Hurricanes thrive in environments with low wind shear, allowing their centers to build vertically and efficiently convert heat energy into rotation.
Think of an ice skater: at first, the spin is slow. But as the skater pulls their arms inward and stands tall, the spin speeds up. The same principle, the conservation of angular momentum, applies to hurricanes. When storms stay vertically aligned, their spin and strength can increase rapidly.
Mid-level moisture is an important parameter, too. The story starts with African Easterly Waves that move across the Sahel region of Africa.
When the area shown below in orange is wet, two things happen:
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The dust cloud from winds blowing across this semi-arid region is suppressed.
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With less dust in the atmosphere, hurricanes benefit from increased mid-level moisture—one of the key ingredients that helps storms develop and intensify.
The forecast from our national climate model shows a large green and blue area indicating excessive rainfall in July 2025. If accurate, this would suppress dust and increase mid-level moisture for the easterly wave storm systems emerging into the Atlantic—conditions that support hurricane development as peak hurricane season begins.
Looking at the broader picture for the Main Development Region, large swaths of heavy rainfall suggest high moisture availability, especially in July and October.
The red arrow indicates a potential storm track where systems could produce this kind of heavy rainfall.
Taken together, it appears there will be plenty of mid-level moisture to support another active hurricane season. While it’s best not to take any of these graphics as absolute, especially with hurricane season beginning in June, they are providing important input to the CAC forecast.
Summary of Conditions
And One More Thing
The National Hurricane Center has updated its baseline for average Atlantic hurricane season activity from the 1981–2010 period to 1991–2020. This change reflects a rising trend, increasing the average number of named storms from 12 to 14.
The CAC also took a deep dive into storm activity over the past 10 years… and what we found might make you say, “YIKES!”
A look at historical storm data from 2015 to 2024 highlights a notable increase in storm activity compared to earlier decades. This trend underscores the importance of ongoing preparation, as climate change is contributing to more intense hurricanes with higher rainfall, storm surge, and wind speeds.
With all these ingredients in mind, it’s time for the CAC 2025 Hurricane Season Forecast.
The 2025 CAC Hurricane Season Forecast
After mixing all the ingredients together in this year’s proportions, the CAC makes the following forecast.
The 2025 Hurricane Season Forecast
We are predicting another active year, with only a slight decrease in the number of Named Storms and Hurricanes compared to 2024—and the same number of Major Hurricanes.
Given current conditions, the Caribbean and the Gulf of America are again favored areas. Florida also remains in a high-risk zone.
A Major Hurricane strike on a population center during the more intense heat of mid-summer is a serious concern.
Rapid Intensification (RI) is a major risk again this year. RI can, and often does, happen close to the coast, making the threat even more dangerous. With climate warming, the lead time for preventive action may be short. YOU do need to be ready.
Preparing for the Storms: Top 10 Actions to Take
Preparedness is the key to safety during hurricane season. Here are the top 10 steps recommended by the CAC to help you and your family stay safe:
1. Create an Emergency Plan:
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Know your home’s elevation and evacuation zone.
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Establish a family meeting place in case you get separated.
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Identify a safe room in your home—preferably an interior, windowless space.
2. Build a Hurricane Kit:
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Stock at least seven days’ worth of food and water (one gallon per person per day).
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Include medications, first aid supplies, cash, important documents, flashlights, batteries, portable phone chargers, and a battery-powered radio.
3. Secure Your Home:
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Install hurricane shutters or impact-resistant windows.
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Trim trees and clear loose debris.
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Reinforce garage doors and secure outdoor furniture.
4. Review Insurance Policies:
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Check flood, wind, and homeowners’ coverage.
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Remember: flooding can happen outside flood zones. Consider adding flood insurance.
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Take photos of valuables and property for claims.
5. Prepare for Power Outages:
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Have extra fuel for generators (always operate outdoors).
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Charge electronics before the storm.
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Keep extra propane or charcoal for cooking if needed.
6. Know Evacuation Routes and Shelters:
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Familiarize yourself with local evacuation zones.
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Identify nearby hurricane shelters, including pet-friendly ones.
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If evacuating, leave early to avoid traffic.
7. Protect Important Documents:
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Store copies of IDs, insurance, deeds, and financial records in a waterproof container.
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Keep digital copies in the cloud or on a USB drive.
8. Prepare Your Vehicle:
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Fill your gas tank early—stations may run out.
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Check tires, brakes, and oil.
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Keep an emergency kit in your car.
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Park at a safe elevation if flooding is a concern.
9. Sign Up for CAC Storm Updates:
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Subscribe to CAC’s newsletter for forecasts and emergency alerts.
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Follow trusted guidance and evacuation orders when storms approach.
10. Have a Post-Storm Plan:
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Avoid floodwaters and downed power lines.
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Document damage for insurance.
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Watch out for scams during recovery.
Meet the 2025 Storms
Each year, tropical storms are named alphabetically. While the names don’t affect a storm’s strength, they help the public stay informed. Stay alert as the season progresses and monitor updates from trusted sources like the CAC.
Why Your Membership Matters
The Climate Adaptation Center is committed to providing accurate hurricane forecasts, climate research, and actionable guidance to help communities adapt to our changing environment. By becoming a CAC member, you directly support this vital work, and most of your donations are considered charitable gifts.
Membership comes with valuable benefits, including:
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Access to detailed storm reports
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Early alerts and expert web articles
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Event tickets and great learning experiences
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Specialized briefings throughout the season
Scan the QR code below or click here to join today and help us continue making a difference.
Conclusion
As the 2025 hurricane season approaches, preparation is more critical than ever. By understanding the forecast, following key preparedness steps, and staying informed through CAC updates, you can protect yourself, your loved ones, and your property. The National Hurricane Center issues official hurricane and tropical storm watches and warnings when a storm threatens. Stay tuned, stay alert, and stay safe.
Let’s work together to build resilience and face the season with confidence.