Sit up and pay attention!
As I mentioned yesterday, a new tropical system would form in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico this weekend. A tropical depression has now developed and is likely to strengthen into a major hurricane, potentially making a DIRECT HIT on the Suncoast by Wednesday.
This Saturday morning’s visible satellite image shows Tropical Depression 14 organizing in the southwest Gulf. I’m impressed with how quickly it is organizing.
The situation is explosive, tempered only slightly by Hurricane Helene’s passage a week ago. That storm churned up the Gulf waters, lowering sea surface temperatures a bit. However, they still remain in the mid-80s, which is enough for major hurricane development.
The heat content is shown in the image below, where yellow, orange, and red indicate abundant heat content. This means that the water is not only warm at the surface but also to a depth of several hundred feet.
The red arrow shows the anticipated storm movement. It appears that Milton will travel over the Loop Current—a bubble of very warm water—which could significantly intensify the storm as it approaches Florida’s west coast. Hurricane Ian traveled over a similar environment just before it reached Category 5 status.
Currently, a La Niña event is developing in the Pacific, which generally results in low wind shear in the Gulf of Mexico. Low wind shear allows storms to stack up vertically, efficiently converting heat into rain, wind, and lower central pressure in the storm’s eye.
Adding to the risk are upward vertical motion over the Gulf and abundant mid-level moisture, which create a potent situation with a grave potential for danger.
Because of these factors—and the fact that numerical weather models have been under-forecasting storm intensification this year—I believe there is a high likelihood that Milton will become a major hurricane, Category 3, 4, or 5. I hope I’m wrong.
A frontal boundary along the northern Gulf that will likely keep Milton tracking northeast across the Gulf. This trajectory keeps the storm over water for about the maximum possible time before landfall giving it ample time to strengthen.
The National Hurricane Center has released this cone. Anyone within the cone could experience a direct hit, and people outside the cone could still experience serious impacts. We learned this lesson earlier this year from Hurricanes Helene and Debby.
This storm has the potential to be worse for those on the Suncoast. Major storm surge, highly destructive winds, and excessive flooding are all likely near the landfall area, with serious impacts far from the storm’s center.
While heavy rains will begin impacting Florida on Sunday, the storm will approach on Tuesday evening and strike Wednesday. Some adjustments to timing are likely, as the forward speed could vary.
In summary, prepare for a major hurricane with a possible direct hit on the Suncoast. Warnings will be issued, and evacuation orders are likely in the coming days. Don’t try to be an armchair expert—please listen to the professionals and act accordingly.
Remember, the cone is wide now because the storm is still days away, but it will become smaller and more precise as we get closer to landfall. Regardless, major impacts are ahead. Sarasota, Manatee, and other west coast counties know too well the danger of being outside the cone and still facing severe consequences.
On April 4, 2024, the CAC forecasted an intense hurricane season for the Suncoast. Let’s be prepared and make informed decisions. When the season is over, we need to focus on adapting to these storms before they hit, not just recovering afterward. There is so much we can—and must—do! Investing in adaptation will save lives and reduce property damage. In a climate-warmed world, business as usual is no longer an option!
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Climate scientists have been warning that events like hurricanes, tropical storms and even heavy rains are being made worse by climate change. These climate-induced events have taken a devastating toll, claiming many lives and causing billions of dollars in property damage. Everybody is talking about the cost to rebuild homes, businesses and infrastructure, but there is more to it than money.
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