GOES East view of Tropical Storm Milton Credit: NOAA/NESDIS/STAR
Rapidly Intensifying Milton to Strike October 9th!
Status as of October 6th:
Tropical Storm Milton is rapidly intensifying over the SW Gulf of Mexico and has already reached hurricane status.
Major impacts on the west coast of Florida from Hurricane Force Winds, Storm Surge and Excessive Rain are likely Wednesday.
As I indicated both Friday and Saturday, a new tropical system has formed in the SW Gulf of Mexico this weekend. Tropical Storm Milton will likely become a Major Hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico and approach the Suncoast with the potential for a DIRECT HIT on Wednesday, October 9th.
Milton is small right now compared to Debby and Helene and it will have its own personality. Some of that personality is now evident. Milton will be a very concentric and classic-looking Major Hurricane as you can already see on the satellite image. It is very symmetrical and is powering up quickly and effectively as it begins moving across the southern Gulf of Mexico.
Tropical Storm Milton October 6th Credit: NOAA/NESDIS/STAR/TropicalTidbits
As I warned yesterday, Milton is likely to become a Major Hurricane well before it makes a direct impact on the west coast of Florida. By late tomorrow the storm will probably reach Category 3 status and there are signs it may get stronger than that.
Early morning data shows an eye is forming. Having a good fix on the eye will help focus the forecast cone which is already beginning to become more focused. There has been some movement of the cone north and south over the past day but it is very close to where it was yesterday right now. The center of Milton is likely to be within the cone but expect adjustments over the days ahead. At this point the adjustment should be within about 100 miles either way.
What is clear is this—a very unusual path is taking shape where the storm moves across the Gulf of Mexico from west to east and over a very warm Gulf and Loop Current within the Gulf. We are not used to having storms approach the coast from this trajectory. In my view this is both unique and dangerous at the same time!
Projected Path of Tropical Storm Milton, predicted to reach hurricane strength Credit: NOAA/NWS
The expected approach path gives Milton lots of time to suck up energy with an optimal concentric shape and low to moderate wind shear. There is very little veering of the winds from the surface of the water to the top of the hurricane. This is pretty much an ideal hurricane development environment.
Warnings and Watches from the National Hurricane Center
Major Storm Surge, highly destructive winds and excessive flooding are all likely in and near landfall with serious impacts far from the center. Don’t just focus on the cone!
Storm surge is a significant concern. While the first estimates have not been posted by the National Hurricane Center yet, the graphic below shows widespread storm surge potential all along the coast with the Sarasota Metro area quite vulnerable.
As we have learned, even oblique hits by Idalia and Helene caused major to historic surges along the barrier islands. A direct hit will mean even worse impacts close to where the center comes ashore. The sea level has risen 9 inches since 1950 making these surges more severe.
Potential Storm Surge flooding in the Sarasota area Credit: NOAA/NWS
Winds will be an issue too. I expect Milton to grow in size and strength as it nears the Florida West Coast. It would not be at all surprising to see the entire Sarasota metro area experience hurricane force winds and/or wind gusts.
Fortunately there is time to prepare. It is very important that anything not securely attached be removed and put away so these objects do not become missiles in high winds.
Don’t wait to evacuate once evacuation notices are given! Remember, many of our evacuation routes have not been raised and will become flooded well before the hurricane arrives.
Know your elevation! If a 6 foot storm surge is forecast and you are at sea level then you are putting yourself in a lethal situation. Be smart and do the math!
Our communities are mobilizing. Be part of it and take the advice of officials.
From Milton’s current position, the average error in track forecasts is about 100 miles. It can shift, but if it does you will still have major impacts so be prepared!