Storm Surge Warnings, Hurricane Warnings
Major to catastrophic impacts are anticipated from Hurricane Milton. Major hurricane-force winds, storm surge, and excessive rainfall are almost certain on Wednesday and Thursday along the West Florida coast, extending to the Big Bend area.
Specifically, for the Sarasota-Manatee Metro Area, it is likely that the eye of Hurricane Milton will pass over or near our region late Wednesday night into early Thursday morning.
Please take all necessary precautions to stay safe.
High tide concern
High tide in Sarasota is at 4:32 AM, and the eye of the storm is projected to pass within a few hours of that time, according to the latest projection.
Per the CAC Tropical Update yesterday, “The Sarasota Tampa area will be experiencing the worst with the eye of Milton passing over within that stretch.”
As mentioned in the CAC Tropical Update yesterday, “The Sarasota-Tampa area will be experiencing the worst conditions, with the eye of Milton passing over that stretch.”
Could storm shift?
Keep in mind that errors of about 60 miles one way or another are common at this stage, so please stay vigilant as Milton approaches. Many storms have wobbled as they near the coast, and this one may do the same.
Remember, the impacts from Hurricane Milton will be severe throughout the metro area, even if the eye shifts slightly before landfall.
Do not focus solely on the point where the eye crosses the coast.
Preparations
Preparations should be completed by today. Do not second-guess the experts or our community leaders.
Given the risks, they will provide guidance on evacuations, shelters, and other critical information. Please follow their instructions—it could save your life!
Historic developments
Milton is expanding in size today following a historic rapid intensification cycle, having surged from a tropical storm to a Category 5 in just one day! Remarkably, it intensified from a Category 3 to a Category 5 in only 5 hours.
The lowest pressure recorded yesterday was 897 mb, making it one of the five most intense storms in history!
I previously mentioned that an Eye Replacement Cycle (ERC) could occur today, and it has already taken place. This has resulted in a minor decrease in peak winds, dropping from 180 mph to 150 mph. Additionally, the area of hurricane-force winds has expanded, and I expect this trend to continue.
Storm Surge Alert
The impending storm surge from Hurricane Milton is expected to be exceptionally severe. A significant portion of the West Florida coast will experience maximum storm surges ranging from 10 to 15 feet. Wave action, fueled by hurricane-force winds, will be on top of that exacerbating this situation.
Important Reminder: In modern history, Milton presents one of the highest storm surge potentials. Do the math. If your home is at 8 feet above sea level and a 15-foot storm surge occurs, survival is unlikely.
ACTION REQUIRED
- EVACUATE IMMEDIATELY as instructed by local officials
- KNOW YOUR ELEVATION
- Be aware that escape routes may flood well before landfall!
A late satellite image shows how Milton is growing in size; a trend that should continue as the storm approaches the west coast of Florida.
Milton is following an unusual path across the Gulf of Mexico from west to east and over a very warm Gulf and Loop Current within the Gulf. We are not use to having storms approach the coast from this trajectory. In my view this is rather unique and dangerous at the same time!
More strengthening today?
Don’t be surprised if Milton strengthens further today as its circulation moves over the Loop Current, which is known for its maximum heat content.
Winds and guests are expected to increase along the Suncoast especially after sunrise Wednesday. Many areas will see winds peak at or above 100 mph on Wednesday night and Thursday morning.
Safety Reminder:
Please remember to clean your patios, move vehicles to higher ground, and secure any loose debris. Taking these steps can help ensure your safety and the safety of others!
Warnings and Watches are in effect as shown above
The storm will traverse the entire state from west to east as a hurricane. This means damage will be widespread, even inland.
6 to 12 inches of rain will also be falling on very saturated ground, with over 50 inches of previous rain that fell this summer. Flash flooding and severe flooding are significant risks.
What to do
Time is running out to prepare! Be sure to remove and secure any loose items that could become dangerous missiles in high winds. Act now to protect yourself and others!
Evacuate Early—Don’t Wait!
Once evacuation orders are given, act immediately. Many of our evacuation routes could flood well before the hurricane arrives.
Know your elevation! With a forecasted storm surge of 10-15 feet, waves will push water even higher. Don’t risk your life—do the math. If the forecasted surge is higher than your elevation, evacuate to safety!
Please follow the advice of officials—it could save your life.
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