The CAC hosts the annual Florida Climate Conference in Sarasota, bringing the world’s leading experts to the region to accelerate climate adaptation efforts, reduce threats, and safeguard the Florida way of life.
The 2024 Florida Climate Conference, which focused on climate and human health, emphasized how climate warming is driving many people to relocate due to a changing environment. Notably, the southeastern United States is experiencing these impacts more than most other regions in the country.
Some migrants have no choice, while others simply seek a safer and better life. Rising sea levels, intensified storms, and increasing temperatures are driving people from vulnerable areas, while others are drawn to regions like Florida for its lifestyle, despite the risks. This phenomenon is altering population patterns and creating both challenges and opportunities for the region.
Makatla Ritchter wades through flood waters after having to evacuate her home when the flood waters from Hurricane Idalia inundated it on Aug. 30, 2023, in Tarpon Springs, Florida.
Types of Climate Migration
Inland Migration
Residents along vulnerable coastlines in states like Florida, Louisiana, and South Carolina are moving inland to escape rising seas and storm surges. Cities like Atlanta, Birmingham, and Charlotte are experiencing population growth as people seek safer ground farther from the coast.
Intrastate Migration
In states like Florida, many are relocating within state lines to areas perceived as less risky. Residents of southern Florida are moving north to cities like Gainesville and Tallahassee, where the threat of flooding and sea-level rise is reduced, though issues like extreme heat persist. Locally, some residents are leaving coastal homes in places like Siesta Key and Longboat Key to find condominiums and homes that are inland and on higher elevation.
Interstate Migration
For some, leaving the region altogether is the solution. Many southeasterners are heading to states like Tennessee, Kentucky, and the Midwest, where climate risks are less severe. These moves, however, often require adapting to new climates, economies, and cultures.
International Migration to Florida
While some Floridians move inland or out of state, Florida continues to attract international migrants, particularly from the Caribbean and Latin America. These regions are increasingly impacted by hurricanes, droughts, and sea-level rise, prompting people to seek safety and opportunities in the Sunshine State. In 2023, Florida welcomed over 178,000 international migrants, accounting for 15% of the nation’s total.
Florida: A Paradox of Climate Migration
David Altig, executive vice president and chief economic adviser at the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, spoke at the 2024 Climate Conference and surprised some by saying, “The U.S. population is not fleeing from disaster. It’s fleeing to disaster. Almost all of it is to the Gulf Coast.” Watch Altig’s full presentation on our YouTube channel here.
David Altig, executive vice president and chief economic adviser at the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, speaks at the 2024 Florida Climate Conference.
Despite being at the forefront of climate challenges, Florida experiences significant domestic migration. The state’s warm winters, coastal lifestyle, and tax advantages draw retirees, professionals, and families from across the country. So even though Florida is experiencing ballooning insurance costs and intensifying natural disasters which is driving thousands of Floridians out of risky areas, those people are quickly being replaced by other people for whom climate change doesn’t seem to be the top concern.
America’s high-fire-risk counties saw 63,365 more people move in than out in 2023. Much of that net inflow was people moving to Texas. But the story differs from state to state. In California’s high-fire-risk areas, where wildfires have been out of control over the last couple of weeks, more people left than moved in. That marks a reversal from 2022, indicating that people may be growing more responsive to fire risk in the Golden State. Read more about how climate warming is impacting the California wildfires here.
The nation’s high-flood-risk counties saw 16,144 more people move in than out. Florida drove a large share of the migration to high-flood-risk counties, but a smaller share than it did in 2022, indicating that people may be growing more responsive to flood risk in the Sunshine State.
In 2023 alone, Florida gained a net total of 126,000 residents from other states. This consistent population growth has brought the state’s total population to an all-time high of 23 million as of 2024.
Challenges of Population Growth in Florida’s warming climate:
- Housing Shortages: Storm surge flooding and rising sea levels have driven many coastal residents to migrate inland, increasing demand for housing in safer areas. This surge has pushed property values higher, making affordable housing increasingly scarce for local and incoming residents alike.
- Strained Infrastructure: Rapid population growth has put significant pressure on transportation, healthcare, and public services, much of which in Florida’s coastal regions was not designed to withstand today’s climate challenges. Aging infrastructure, coupled with the increasing risks of flooding and storm surge, underscores the urgent need for upgrades to meet the demands of both a growing population and a changing environment.
- Climate Risks: While newcomers are drawn to Florida’s lifestyle, the state is getting increasingly vulnerable to hurricanes, flooding, and sea-level rise, which could impact its long-term livability.
Climate Factors Driving Migration
Climate warming is driving significant changes in the southeastern U.S., reshaping migration patterns across the region:
- Rising Temperatures: By 2050, the Southeast, including Florida, is projected to experience an additional 5 to 35 days annually with temperatures exceeding 95°F, along with over 30 more days each year of heat index values above 100°F by 2053, particularly impacting the Gulf Coast region, intensifying heat-related health risks and reducing agricultural productivity.
- Sea-Level Rise: The Climate Adaptation Center (CAC) forecast the Sarasota coastline to rise another 11 inches by 2050. The rate of sea level rise continue to increase and additional significant seal level rise is expected by 2100 and beyond, threatening coastal communities with chronic flooding and land loss.
- Increased Wildfire Risk: Climate change, combined with population growth, is expected to increase wildfire exposure in the Southeast by 11–55% by 2070, posing new threats to both urban and rural areas.
Broader Implications and Future Considerations
Altig went on to say that the Southeast must assume continued population growth and plan to absorb growth with intentionality toward sustainability and resilience.
Projections suggest that by 2100, approximately 13.1 million Americans could be living on land at risk of flooding due to sea-level rise. This underscores the need for our communities and our decision-makers to develop strategic planning to address the challenges posed by climate-warming related migration.
Investments in resilient infrastructure, affordable housing, and community support systems are crucial to accommodate both departing and arriving populations.
Florida’s unique position as both a source and destination for climate migrants illustrates the complexity of this issue. While the state attracts people from across the U.S. and the globe due to its climate and lifestyle, this continued growth places significant strain on resources. Challenges such as housing shortages, water supply concerns, and pressure on public services require careful management to ensure long-term sustainability and livability.
As the impacts of a warming climate intensify, the southeastern United States stands at ground zero of this historic shift, offering valuable lessons on resilience, adaptation, and the human capacity to build new lives in the face of change. The work of organizations like the Climate Adaptation Center (CAC) will be essential in developing resilience, providing expertise, and guiding both communities and policymakers toward a sustainable future.