The CAC 2025 Hurricane Season Forecast is being made as you read this. It is always an important forecast, but after last year’s historic season with Debbie, Helene, and Milton, the stakes feel even higher. With many still recovering, there is heightened concern and anticipation for this year’s outlook, as communities and officials prepare for what may come next.
Our community is still recovering, with many feeling numb and shaken, trying to rebuild their lives after the devastation.
So how is a hurricane season forecast made? How can we possibly see months in advance what the season will bring?
While no forecast is perfect, long range models and climate signals give us a strong foundation for predicting hurricane activity. Seasonal hurricane forecasts have historically been remarkably accurate, especially in predicting overall storm activity.
While exact storm tracks and landfalls cannot be predicted months in advance, seasonal forecasts are often fairly accurate in estimating storm counts and overall intensity trends. By analyzing oceanic and atmospheric conditions, we can provide a forecast that is not only reliable but also actionable.
How Accurate Have We Been?
Over the past two years, the CAC Hurricane Season Forecast has been the most accurate in the country.
- 2023: We nailed the exact number of storms, forecasting seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes, which was exactly what formed.
- 2024: We over forecasted by just one storm, predicting 12 hurricanes and six major hurricanes, while the actual season brought 11 hurricanes and five major hurricanes.
- Two-Year Total: Across two full years of forecasts, we were off by only one hurricane and one major hurricane.
No other national forecast can say this.
This information gives emergency managers, businesses, and the public a critical head start in preparing for the season ahead.
The Science Behind the Forecast
Hurricanes do not just appear out of nowhere. Their formation and intensity are influenced by a complex web of factors spanning thousands of miles across the Atlantic.
At the CAC, we are analyzing these key ingredients.
Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies on Mar 11, 2025
Sea surface temperatures and ocean heat content
Warmer waters in the Main Development Region in the Atlantic act as fuel for hurricanes. The deeper and warmer the ocean, the stronger storms can become. This year, we are closely watching temperature anomalies, which are deviations from the average sea surface temperatures. When waters are warmer than normal for an extended period, it can create conditions that favor a more active hurricane season.
Saharan dust outbreaks
Massive plumes of dust from the Sahara Desert can travel thousands of miles across the Atlantic, suppressing hurricane formation by drying out the atmosphere. If a strong Saharan dust outbreak occurs early in the season, it could limit storm development, but if dust levels are weak, it could open the door for more storms to form.
Most Atlantic hurricanes originate over Africa, where dry desert air meets cool, moist air. This interaction creates the African Easterly Jet, a powerful westward stream. Atmospheric disturbances, known as easterly waves from Africa, break off from this jet and can trigger hurricanes.
Easterly waves from Africa
Many of the most powerful hurricanes start as small clusters of thunderstorms moving off the African coast. By tracking these easterly waves, we can gauge how many potential storm systems might develop into hurricanes this year.
Wind shear in the Main Development Region
Strong upper level winds can tear apart developing storms, while weak wind shear allows them to grow. We are carefully monitoring whether conditions in the Main Development Region will favor hurricane intensification or disruption.
The Main Development Region (MDR) is where 60 to 70 percent of all Atlantic storms and about 85 percent of major hurricanes form. Warm waters, low wind shear, and favorable conditions make this area the primary breeding ground for long-tracked hurricanes during peak season.
Deep tropical moisture availability
For hurricanes to thrive, the atmosphere needs to be moist and unstable. If dry air dominates, storms struggle to form. By analyzing moisture patterns, we can anticipate whether conditions will be favorable for storms or less supportive of development.
Other Things We Consider
We also consider:
- El Nino and La Nina These large scale climate patterns can enhance or suppress hurricane activity.
- Early season storm trends Sometimes, the first few storms of the season give us clues about what is to come.
- Shifts in the jet stream Changes in global wind patterns can influence storm tracks and intensity.
Seasonal forecasts are not designed to predict specific hurricane landfalls but instead provide a big picture outlook for overall storm activity.
Beyond the Models The Art and Science of Hurricane Forecasting
While these factors provide the backbone of our forecast, predicting a hurricane season is a blend of both art and science. Experienced forecasters at the CAC interpret historical trends, seasonal shifts, and the latest climate data to fine tune their predictions.
“Hurricane” Bob
At the helm of the most anticipated hurricane forecast is CAC CEO, Bob Bunting, a renowned atmospheric scientist, former NOAA lead forecaster, and longtime hurricane expert, so much so that he’s earned the nickname “Hurricane Bob.”
Bob Bunting, CEO, CAC, surveys the damage on Siesta Key after the landfall of Hurricane Milton.
Bunting’s career spans decades of expertise in weather prediction, climate science, and emergency preparedness:
- Former NOAA National Weather Service Lead Forecaster – Providing critical weather insights and storm tracking, winning two Special Achievement Awards for severe weather forecasts.
- Scientist at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) – Participating in global weather and climate programs that have shaped modern meteorology.
- Television Meteorologist – Featured on NBC’s Today Show, KMOX in St. Louis, and Denver’s Channel 2, bringing life-saving weather forecasts to millions.
- University-Level Educator in Atmospheric Science – Teaching at St. Louis University,
- Washington University, The University of Colorado and University of South Florida, helping shape the next generation of meteorologists.
- Chairman & CEO of the Climate Adaptation Center (CAC) – Leading the charge in climate forecasting and adaptation strategies.
Bunting’s extensive experience in weather modeling, forecasting, and climate science makes him the go-to expert for hurricane season predictions. And given CAC’s proven track record of accuracy, this forecast is one that emergency planners, businesses, and residents along the coasts cannot afford to miss.
Get the Full 2025 Hurricane Season Forecast on April 1, No Joke!
While many organizations release seasonal hurricane forecasts, ours is the first in the nation, and it provides valuable lead time nearly six weeks before NOAA’s outlook.
After the hurricane season we had last year, you do not want to miss the forecast for 2025.
Join us for the official 2025 Hurricane Season Forecast Day, Tuesday, April 1.
USF Sarasota Manatee Campus
Tuesday April 1, 2025 from 830 AM to 12 PM
Learn directly from hurricane forecasting experts and get the critical information you need to protect your home, business, and family.
Secure your spot today. Get your tickets here!
Stay informed. Stay prepared. Stay ahead of the storm.